We can’t defeat populism without fixing inequality – Byrne

Sunday 6th October 2024, FOR IMMEDIATE PUBLICATION

New analysis of election data reveals Reform UK did best in Britain’s ‘left behind’ regions and constituencies

A new analysis of the general election results reveals that the Reform UK vote was highest in the regions and constituencies left behind by the wealth boom enjoyed by the richest in Britain over the last twenty years.

Using data prepared by the House of Commons Library matched to deprivation statistics, house price data and data from the Office of National Statistics Wealth and Asset Survey, Liam Byrne MP, reveals:

1. Regions where the overall growth in personal wealth was slowest between 2006/08 and 2018/20 – namely the North East and the East Midlands – were the regions where the Reform UK vote was highest. The region with the highest wealth growth – the South East – was the region where Reform did worst.

2. The top twenty Reform UK voting constituencies (where Reform averaged 30%) were characterised by:

o   House prices that were a third lower – £118,000 – than the national average (£195K vs £313K)

o   They were home to a third fewer adults with Level 4+ skills (21% vs 34%)

o   The proportion of households living in deprivation was 6% higher (58% vs 52%

3. In constituencies with the national average of non-white voters, there were robust correlations between house prices and the Reform vote. Where house prices were lower, the Reform vote was generally higher. In constituencies with house prices above the national average, Reform struggled to command more than 20% of the vote.

Liam Byrne MP, said:

‘So far, the debate in Britain about how best to defeat populism has focused almost exclusively on reform of immigration. But this is completely missing the economics of what’s going on.

‘This new analysis shows that the places that vote Reform in large numbers, have, by and large, got one big thing in common – they are the places left behind by the boom in wealth enjoyed by the very richest in Britain.

‘The last fifteen years of austerity have in fact been very good for a lucky few. The richest 1% in Britain have grown their collective fortunes by over £1 trillion. That means an average top '1-percenter' has seen their wealth rise by £2. 2 million. That is forty-one times more than everyone else.

'That’s been helped by £850 billion of quantitative easing which helped keep interest rates low and triggered soaring asset prices.

‘But we all paid for quantitative easing. Indeed, unwinding quantitative easing is expected to cost taxpayers £104 billion - yet those who earn their money from investment income pay lower rates of tax towards this bill.

'People know that our economy simply isn’t fair. That anger is fuelling populism and the election results help prove it. The conclusion is blunt. We can’t defeat populism unless we deal with wealth inequality - and we can't fix wealth inequality without some windfall taxes on the very richest in our country.'

ENDS

Notes to editors

1.    Wealth growth and the Reform vote. Source: House of Commons Library and ONS Wealth and Assets Survey

Aggregate total wealth (£ millions)	July 2006 to June 2008	April 2018 to March 2020	Change in Aggregate Wealth 2006/08-2018/20 (£ million)	Reform UK Vote GE 2024
North East	290,165	443,942	153,777	20.4%
East Midlands	579,766	901,606	321,840	19.1%
West Midlands	669,509	1,117,136	447,627	18.3%
East of England	909,856	1,723,150	813,294	17.7%
Wales	425,319	698,864	273,545	16.9%
Yorkshire & the Humber	607,068	1,001,602	394,534	16.8%
North West	823,243	1,336,106	512,863	16.7%
South East	1,545,758	3,126,542	1,580,784	14.2%
South West	799,158	1,465,981	666,823	13.9%
London	1,108,879	2,266,340	1,157,461	8.7%
Scotland	667,692	1,139,872	472,180	7.0%
Great Britain	8,426,413	15,221,142	6,794,729

2. The data on constituencies in England and Wales is attached to this blog post below. Data used for the analysis excludes Northern Ireland where Reform UK did not field candidates and Scotland where house price data is not available.

Data - GE2024 Results + Key Constituency Economic Data - 2024

.xlsx

Download XLSX • 407KB

Slides - The Reform Vote & Inequality - Oct 2024

.pdf

Download PDF • 1.50MB

3. Liam Byrne MP's book, The Inequality of Wealth: Why It Matters and How We Fix It, is published in paperback this week. Details here: www.inequalityofwealth.co.uk